February 19, 2019

Is the world running out of people? This duo believes we might

People aligned wearing yellow teeshirts

No, the title is not a typo: we might get there sooner than you think. That’s if you ask Canadian journalist John Ibbitson and political scientist Darrell Bricker, who believe world population will decline in the next few decades. The two writers, promoting their new book “Empty Planet” during the interview, conclude that within 30 years we’ll begin to a long term demographic shift. Both men believe that once the population decline kicks in, it’ll never stop, challenging assumptions that are held by many people across the world.

What’s really going on?

The book challenges existing UN population models through new studies and number crunching. Unlike the UN which estimates the number to reach 11 billion by 2100, the authors believe old assumptions no longer apply due to tech’s growing impact. In fact, tech impacts people in many different ways, including population growth. Because tech can alleviate certain pain points, fertility rates in some developing countries don’t need to be as high. As the authors outlined:

  • Every woman living within an Indian slum had a smartphone
  • This gave them access to unlimited knowledge via the Internet
  • For context, India is one of the world’s largest countries, with a population well above 1 billion people.

As many economists will attest, economic growth is turbocharged through women’s education as women are often caretakers of future generations. More educated women mean smarter kids, and ultimately better underlying economics for a nation and its population.

 

Who gets the final say?

Although prior forecasts were fairly accurate, the past 100 years won’t be good predictors of our future. The advent of technology and its capabilities change the dynamics of our world, as well as its people and demographics. Perhaps the counter-analysis will be correct, but the fact remains that we are depleting our planet at alarming rates. Smaller populations don’t necessarily mean that this will stop, but harnessing technology properly can help amend these problems. The hard thing for us is to bite the bullet for future generations to thrive.

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